Ethereum Capitulation May Be Nearing End – Will A Fed Pivot Spark A Recovery?

Ethereum has extended its downtrend, setting fresh lows around $1,400 — a level not seen since early 2023. The continuation of selling pressure has shaken market sentiment, with many investors fearing that the worst is still ahead. Ethereum, down over 65% from its 2024 highs, has failed to find a solid support level amid broad market weakness and growing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts believe a turning point may be near. According to top analyst Ted Pillows, Ethereum is now deep in a capitulation phase. He suggests that while there may still be one final 5%–10% dump left in the tank — particularly given the recent weakness in equities — the broader market structure may be setting the stage for a rebound.

Pillows points to a potential Federal Reserve pivot as a key catalyst. With traditional markets under pressure and volatility rising, a shift in monetary policy could bring relief. Historically, changes in the Fed’s stance have provided a strong boost to risk assets. If support from policymakers emerges, Ethereum could stabilize and begin recovering from its recent lows — but not before weathering one last wave of fear and uncertainty.

Ethereum Capitulation Deepens, But Fed Pivot Could Spark Rebound

Ethereum is trading at $1,450 after suffering a sharp 20% decline in just hours, marking one of its steepest drops this year. The panic-driven selloff has shaken investor confidence, with fear now dominating the market. Ethereum, once expected to lead the altcoin rally in 2025, has failed to deliver on those expectations. Instead, it continues to disappoint as bearish momentum builds and selling pressure intensifies.

Wider market conditions are adding to the pain. Trade war tensions, policy uncertainty from the US President Donald Trump administration, and mounting fears of a global recession are dragging both equities and crypto lower. With the S&P 500 already down sharply, the fear of a broader financial contagion is rising.

Pillows’ analysis supports that Ethereum’s current plunge reflects a full-blown capitulation. However, he suggests that the market could be nearing a turning point. “Maybe there’s one last dump left, but after that, it’ll bounce,” Pillows said. The key reason? A likely pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Pillows points to a potential Federal Reserve pivot as the catalyst. With the S&P 500 down over 10% in just two days and volatility rising, any further drop could force an emergency Fed response. Historically, rate cuts and renewed quantitative easing (QE) have been bullish for risk assets like Ethereum. If a pivot arrives, Ethereum could quickly bounce from current levels — but only after one final shakeout.

Ethereum Slides To $1,410 As Bears Maintain Control

Ethereum has plunged to $1,410 after losing the crucial $1,800 support level, triggering a wave of aggressive selling and panic across the market. With no clear support zone immediately below current levels, bearish momentum appears firmly in control as ETH struggles to find footing. The breakdown below $1,800 marked a major technical failure, erasing confidence among traders and accelerating downside pressure.

For now, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. If sentiment doesn’t stabilize soon, Ethereum could continue sliding into lower demand zones, possibly retesting levels not seen since early 2022. The lack of a defined support structure beneath current prices leaves ETH exposed to more volatility in the near term.

However, hope remains for a recovery — but it hinges on a swift reclaim of the $1,800 level. A strong bounce back above this mark could signal that capitulation is complete and invite renewed buying interest from sidelined investors. Until then, Ethereum remains vulnerable, and any upside attempts will likely face resistance unless backed by broader market strength or a decisive macro shift. Bulls have a narrow window to flip the momentum before deeper losses set in.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView